The main reason for the quarrel between Turkey and Russia, the two most important trading partners in the past, was the Syrian policy. We also can add another great concern of Russia, suffering from radical Islamists in the country, Turkey’s relations with LIH and similar organizations. It’s fact that Turkey is a NATO member, and can count on the help of members of the unit. If this happens, we can not escape the Third World. Therefore, in this review we will talk about the possible development of the situation, if Turkey would fight only by itself.
Nuclear exchange between Russia and Turkey is possible only in the case of the intervention of NATO members. It threatens to result in a catastrophe for the entire globe. Although it is possible that Turkey and Russia would be limited to the land and amphibious operations.
Ways of moving. As it can be seen on the map, countries have no common border. The attacking side can only move through the Caucasus or via amphibious assault.
Power of armies. Let’s start with the fact that the budget of the Russian army in more than 3 times higher than the Turkish army – $ 60.4 billion versus $ 18.2 billion. Corresponding data was published in the Global Firepower 2015 reports and World Air Forces 2015.
The Russian fleet is bigger than Turkish, but it is divided into several parts, which can be found on opposite sides of the world. In addition, most of the ships are small, and they do not have sufficient autonomy for such operations.
Turkish navy would operate more flexibly in the event of war, because it would be easy to pass through the Bosporus and the Dardanelles in opposite directions. So, even small boats and diesel submarines would have advantages.
Russian Airborne Troops – is one of the strongest units in the world. If Russia uses its aircraft it will be able to transfer to Turkey Airborne Corps easily. By the way, in comparison with Turkey, Russia has 3.5 times more fighters and 6 times more bombers.
The Turkish Air Force is absolutely not ready to fight with the enemy away from their native shores, therefore, most likely, would not even have made such attempts.
The possible development of the situation on the ground. If both sides decide to move towards each other, it is likely that the meeting will take place in Georgia. Russia has an advantage there: it controls the South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and can use its troops there. Turkey can also quickly transfer the majority of its troops along the coast.
Human forces. The Russian Army is only slightly superior than Turkish. At the same time Turkey has a large army, but Russia has more militias. Russia has more professional military forces than Turkey.
Equipment. Both sides have a lot of heavy weapons, but still Russian army has a little more tanks. Russia has a lot of transport aircraft and intelligence equipment, and Turkey does not have.
The best solution for Turkey in this situation (besides attracting NATO) will stretch their strength in Caucasus, which is easier to defend and rely on the fact that the Russian did not have a permanent superiority in the air. Russia does not have clear superiority in the manpower, so the movement will not be easy.
The first year of the war would not be easy for anyone, even if Russia is able to reach the Turkish border. Both countries would have big losses, although the most likely Russian forces would have led to a slight advantage.
In the long term, Russia would not be in a hurry, as it has superiority in terms of population and industry. Turkey without the import of weapons and equipment could not provide itself, while Russia produces a weapon at a rapid pace. But at the same time, the Turks have a lot of manpower. Russian deep movement into Turkish territory would be for them extremely dangerous and slow. So such a victory would be for Russia very expensive.